The Silent Collapse: South Korea’s Birthrate Crisis

A recent report announced a rise in South Korea’s birthrate for the first time in nine years. For a nation grappling with record-low fertility rates, this might seem like a promising development. However, before celebrating, we must take a broader look at the situation.

 

The slight increase in births last year is likely an aftereffect of the COVID-19 pandemic. Many couples postponed marriage and childbirth due to economic uncertainty and job instability, only to resume their plans once conditions stabilized. But this is a temporary rebound, not a reversal of the downward trend. The real test will be how birthrates evolve over the next two to three years.

 

The long-term trajectory remains dire. Historical data shows the following:

• 1970: 1,006,645 births
• 1980: 862,835 births
• 1990: 649,738 births
• 2000: 640,089 births
• 2010: 470,171 births
• 2020: 272,400 births

In just 50 years, the number of newborns has plummeted from over a million to less than a quarter of that figure. During the pandemic, annual births fell below 250,000. Even with a minor increase last year, the total remained at a mere 238,000. South Korea’s entire social infrastructure—including education, welfare, and labor markets—was designed for an annual birthrate of 800,000 to 900,000. The gap is already reshaping the country’s future.

 

Signs of demographic decline are visible everywhere. Rural communities collapsed decades ago, and now small cities are following suit. Maternity hospitals are shutting down. Elementary schools are closing, leaving neighborhoods eerily empty. Stationery stores and snack shops once bustling with children have disappeared. High school districts are losing their PC cafés, and university towns are watching cafés and bookstores shutter their doors.

 

What will South Korea look like in 10 years? Artificial intelligence will likely play an even bigger role in daily life. Immigration will accelerate, reshaping the cultural fabric of society. One thing is certain: the number of young people will shrink. By 2035, South Korea’s population in their 20s and 30s will be at least 20% smaller than today.

 

This crisis cannot be ignored. Temporary cash incentives for childbirth will not solve the problem. Fundamental societal reforms are necessary. Work-life balance, housing affordability, gender equality, and job security must improve to encourage family formation. South Korea must also embrace immigration as a strategic solution rather than a reluctant necessity.

 

Avoiding this issue is not an option. The future of South Korea hinges on decisive action today. If policymakers fail to act, the nation faces not only economic stagnation but an irreversible societal transformation.